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On the PM’s Address to the Nation: Hydrocarbon Monocrop

2/9/2018

 
On the PM’s Address to the Nation:
Hydrocarbon Monocrop
The Prime Minister addressed the nation tonight on 2 issues concerning the hydrocarbon sector on which our country remains dependent for the majority of its GDP, Government Revenue and Foreign Exchange earnings.
Natural Gas from Venezuela
The first was the signing of an agreement among NGC, Shell and PDVSA to facilitate TT access to natural gas from the Venezuelan Dragon field. The only projections of inflows from this source is 2019 at the earliest.
The PM described the benefit of this supply source as:
  1. Giving TT some potential to grow in the medium term
  2. Diversify our gas supply base
  3. Adds to the pool of what is available for current needs
Very calmly, the PM, without explaining exactly why spoke of “sustained gas curtailment to our Pt. Lisas plants” and “our national reserves have been dwindling”.
These two developments are two aspects of a single problem – the decision by the multinational gas producers (up-streamers) not to engage in new exploration and drilling until new concessions were granted by Government.
The PM boasted that his administration negotiated a new gas price with the gas barons which unleashed ‘an exploration and production frenzy’. He also hailed negotiation of gas supply contracts with the down-streamers at Pt. Lisas.
What the PM conveniently forgot to mention was that these matters were completely neglected by the previous PNM administration of which he was apart up to 2010.
He suggested that the new gas production miraculously flowed within a few months, conveniently also forgetting to mention the arrangements finalised in 2013 between the PP administration and the up-streamers, about which his government has continuously complained.
No new exploration or production ‘bears fruit’ in a matter of months. But, the PM is eager to claim another “PNM success”.
Petrotrin Restructuring
On to Petrotrin, the liabilities of which “threaten the credit-rating and financial stability of the country as a whole”, the PM began. This is the language used by the same PNM administration in 2009 in speaking of CLICO and the possibility of its collapse.
These cost of ‘bailing out’ Petrotrin, the PM suggested is about $25B which the country ‘cannot afford at this time’. However, in the midst of a global financial crisis, the Cabinet found it possible to bail out CLICO to the tune of $19B which mushroomed to more than $25B at the time of the start of the recession in 2015.
This PM blamed the current recession on the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014. Now, he blames the threat to ‘financial stability’ on Petrotrin, its massive debt and loss-making.
Describing the refinery as a ‘money loser’, the PM berated ‘gross mismanagement of the national patrimony’ by Petrotrin. He then pointed to ‘every project within the past few decades’ as ‘subject of massive cost overruns and lengthy delays’. The projects he listed were the projects of the Refinery Upgrade undertaken by a Board appointed by and projects approved by the Cabinet between 2003 and 2009, of which this PM was a senior member.
After listing the massive debt incurred by these projects and otherwise guaranteed by that same Cabinet and this one, the PM bemoaned “what is worse no one nor any entity has been held accountable for this expensive travesty” referring to just one of these disastrous projects.
 Conveniently, the PM again forgot that cases against the Board members responsible for ‘this expensive travesty’ were discontinued by his Cabinet as one of its first acts on taking office in 2015.
The PM went on to blame Petrotrin for the inability of his government to provide health and social services to the people of the country, even though government will not supply a cent of the $25B cash he says it will take to help sort out Petrotrin’s disastrous state.
Again, announcing that refining will be closed down in an effort to move Petrotrin from money-losing to a state of profitability as an oil producer and exporter with increases in exploration and production with a workforce reduced by 900 in that very business unit alone.
 The PM promised a ‘soft landing’ to the workers who will lose their jobs, the contractors and service companies who will lose business and the communities which will be negatively affected.
Generous severance packages, new work related to the oil production expansion and infrastructure projects for the affected communities were the respective promises.
The refinery will be up for sale. Though the PM did not put it so bluntly while he ‘offered’ the OWTU ‘first preference’ as buyer. This ‘offer’ was immediately rejected by the OWTU PG speaking on another station.
Conveniently, again, the PM forgot that the GTL plant has already been sold to Niquan-AL.
This talk of ‘soft-landing’ has been a pet slang for regimes since the 1990’s. It was first used in the closure of the IDC-TDA and PUC. It has been used in the many VSEP episodes at WASA and other state agencies. It was promised to the BWIA workers when the airline ‘seamlessly transitioned’ into CAL where they are no longer employed and all, except the pilots, are without union representation.
Details Still Needed
There are many detailed economic analyses not mentioned by the PM in his 52-minute address:
  • To what level of production will Petrotrin move?
  • At what price and with what profit level will TT Petrotrin crude be sold?
  • How will Petrotrin immediately become capable of ‘finance all of its debt’?
  • What is Petrotrin’s contribution to Government Revenue projected to be?
  • What will be the cost of the ‘soft landing’ for the workers and communities?
  • How much is the refinery to be sold for?
  • What are the 2 projects mentioned for the South-West peninsular and their contribution to GDP, Government Revenue and Foreign Exchange Earnings?
  • How much of the loss in these areas will be made up by the refinery-less Petrotrin and the new projects separately and combined?
And there are more details to be provided.
For the OWTU which is touting its ‘alternative’ restructuring plan, it, too, must provide the citizens (shareholders of Petrotrin) with details of the economic costs and forecasts of its plan.
To borrow the PM’s words, for the sake of transparency and accountability to the shareholders (we, the people) there is much more information that must be provided so the citizens can make their own analysis and draw their own conclusions on the closure of the refining business after 104 years.
The people must also be told, apart from replacing current use and with depleting reserves of both oil and gas in mind, what is the government’s plan for replacing this hydrocarbon monocrop for the expansion and sustainability of the nation’s economy down the road.
 
Clyde Weatherhead
A Citizen Demanding
Accountability and a
Sustainable Economy.
2 September 2018
 
TEXT OF PM's ADDRESS TO THE NATION - 2 Sept. 2018
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