Project Independence – After 56 Years: Part 5

At the Golden Jubilee
The decade of the 90’s was one of ‘recovery’ in many ways. It opened with the signing of a structural adjustment loan with the World Bank, probably the last major act of the NAR government.  The NAR departed the political scene and the PNM and UNC took turns in office.
Even our Olympic experience in that decade was less than scintillating. Nineteen athletes journeyed to 2 Olympiads and the medal return was 2 bronze medals, both won by a single athlete, Ato Boldon.
 The currency had a ‘fixed’ float and exchange controls were removed as the full liberalization package was implemented, mostly for the benefit of local manufacturers in the export trade. Electricity generation was divested and after a couple bouts of voluntary separation, Severn Trent was brought into WASA. Privatisation was on the way.
Structural adjustment continued to have negative social effects. Unemployment remained between 20 and 10%. Public sector workers persisted in their fight to recover the $2+B debt owed by the state, created by the pay, increment and COLA cuts in the late 80’s.
One Minister claimed that the ‘structure’ of the economy changed as the energy industry switched from oil to gas, hydrocarbon all the same. The economy was still described as ‘energy-based’ as hydrocarbons still accounted for 87% of exports, 48% of government revenue and 43% of GDP, while providing only 4% of all employment.
Gas plants were littering the landscape at Point Lisas and Point Fortin in a caravan of ‘trains’. Once again, the multinationals claimed the lion’s share and markets on the Eastern seaboard of the US were the primary destination. Not long after the end of the decade, there were 9 ammonia plants in operation.
After the windfalls in 1972-73, and in 1980-81 - boosted by the misfortune of others (the Iran-Iraq war), oil prices steadily declined in the 90’s to a low of $10 per barrel in 1998. Oil production steadily dropped from a peak of 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 1978 to about half of that just after the turn of the century. Gas production rose sharply and flattened at 4.1B cubic feet per day in the first 7 years of the next decade.
Into the 21st Century
As the new millennium began, the recovery from the 80’s recession was coming to a close. The government touted TT as a success story of structural adjustment. GDP was improving mostly because of the gas ‘bubble’.
While the economy was showing positive signs, in the area of governance a new crisis emerged. The stain of withdrawal from international Human Rights bodies to facilitate hangings in 1999 continued to taint the nation’s reputation internationally.
The UNC retained office in the December 11, 2000 General Elections, but questions about the fairness of the elections persisted. Within one year the UNC was split and the administration collapsed in office amid corruption allegations.
Elections were called again in December 2001 and for the first time in the electoral history since 1956, there was a tie - 18-18. President Robinson using euphemisms about “streams into rivers”, appointed PNM Leader, Manning, as PM based on ‘moral and spiritual values’, rather than Constitutional convention. For 10 days or so, the country was run by its civil servants.
For the third time in 2 years, Elections were called on October 7, 2002. The PNM won 20 of the 36 seats. There was a series of issues including the adoption of the CCJ as final Court of Appeal on which the politicians flip flopped as Parliament continued to be tied up in squabbles and corruption charges aimed at both sides of the aisle.
In 2003, crime, which had been escalating since the mid-90’s, exploded with a rash of over 150 kidnappings and the murder toll reached 166. Panday was on 3 charges for integrity violations of non-disclosure of a London bank account.
In mid-year, utilising a 1995 loan agreement with the IADB, negotiated in a period spanning PNM and UNC governments, Caroni Ltd was closed down putting 8000 sugar workers out of work.
Later in the year, PM Manning announced a major Cabinet reshuffle in which 15 Ministers and junior Ministers were affected. The political unease continued and in 2005, the number of seats in the Lower House was increased to 41 to try and avoid recurrence of an electoral tie.
The crime scourge grabbed further attention when 13 people were injured in a bomb explosion on Frederick Street. 10,000 people joined a ‘Death March’ protest against the failure of government to deal with the escalating violent crime situation.
In 2007, General Elections were called in November. The PNM, UNC and COP contested, and the PNM won 26 seats, 2 short of the special majority, that Manning was looking for.
After drafting a Constitution to further concentrate power in the hands of a President and limit checks and balances on such maximum power, government also introduced an unpopular new Property Tax in 2009 while allegations of corruption connected with the construction projects managed by UDECOTT continued unabated. Many warned that mega-project construction drive might ‘overheat’ the economy.
For the second time, in 2010 PM Manning called early elections and a coalition of opposition forces, the People’s Partnership was formed. The PP defeated the PNM, 29 seats to 12, and the first female Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar headed the new government.
A THIRD ‘Oil’ Windfall?
In the first 7 years of the new millennium, natural gas production increased at an average compounded rate of about 13% per year. Natural gas prices rose at an average compounded rate of 17% and methanol and ammonia prices 11 and 13% per year, respectively. Oil prices, too, dramatically rose from $28.1US to $94.1 per barrel between 2003-2008. Crude oil production rose to a maximum of close to 55,000 bpd in 2006-7. Natural gas production rose steadily until about 2010.
Real GDP increased steadily because of the energy (‘oil’) sector situation up to 2010, the new ‘windfall’ cushioning the effect of the global financial crisis.
The economy was booming as we approached the golden jubilee of project Independence in 2012.
While the situation was buoyant and government spending on the increase, the gas ‘bubble’ was in danger of bursting as gas production was heading for decline in the absence of new arrangements to encourage new drilling.
The daily body count escalated as the murderous spread of violent crime remain largely unchecked. The annual toll peaked at 550 in 2008, 509 in 2009 and 485 in 2010 and by 2012 had returned to the same level as in 2005. 3,858 citizens had been slaughtered since 2000. There seemed to be no solution, as detection and conviction rates reached abysmal levels. The violence was being fueled by the drug and gun trade and attendant gang violence and turf wars.
Crimes against women and children were also on the increase. It appeared as if a new level social decay was gnawing away at the very fabric of the society and undermining the nation-building project.
The 50th anniversary of Independence was being marked with pomp and ceremony reminiscent of the euphoria of 1962. The lavish bunting the waterfront (itself a product of the third energy windfall) and around the capital, the re-enactment of the replacement of the Union Jack by the Red, White and Black in the first minutes of the 31st – these were reminders of hope and expectation that had dissipated in the course of 5 decades.
Government publications in tribute to a “Terrific and Tranquil” nation and hailing its “Icons”, the sponsoring of a commemorative CD and other events sought to convince an uneasy and anxious population that all was well with project Independence.
It was as if a government led by ‘the other’ party was trying perhaps too hard to convince that nation-building was on track even while, the 5th deficit budget amid growing GDP was in place and safety and security were becoming endangered.
In the midst of the celebratory atmosphere, President Richards delivered a sobering message at the re-enactment ceremony. T&T Not a Nation of Sheep was the title of his speech in which he said:
“Tonight's event generates excitement, as it should. The occasion is as solemn, as it is pulsating. But euphoria must not be allowed to cloud sober reflection, as reality will not go away.
We need to ask ourselves whether we are living up to the expectations of our freedom fighters, who did battle, not with guns, but with intellectual prowess, artisan skills, artistic brilliance, sport and diplomatic savoir faire to secure our place among the family of independent Nations.”
“We speak of constitutional reform, for example, but that is in stasis.
“We made a promise to Tobago, a long time ago and, as Eric Williams said in Parliament with the joining of our two islands, administratively, one form of neglect was exchanged for another.
This is one of the major areas of brokenness that we can fix and must fix, if we are to proceed with dignity and vigour, in unity, over the next 50 years. Unity in diversity is only one, though very important, aspect of our national character.”.
The President appealed for focus on the need to bring our supreme law, the Constitution, which was created in an atmosphere of tension fostered by the threat of harmful disunity, to make it capable of fulfilling the promise of nationhood and meet the needs of the time.
He pointed to ‘areas of brokenness’ - the unresolved issue of the relationship between Tobago and Trinidad in a nation in which we proclaim, ‘side by side, we stand’ and ‘every creed and race find an equal place’ in our national anthem which hailed our land’s ‘great dawning’.
Without resolving the relationship between our two islands and without ensuring the progress of the entire nation based on the unity of all of its people, nation-building and project Independence remain aspiration rather than reality.
After 50 years, our economy is still dependent on a single commodity, much as it was on sugar at the time of its birth.
Foreign investors and business interests still predominate in that critical sector and otherwise.
In 1962, we were assured ‘Massa day done’, yet at 50, we are not fully in control of our economic fortunes and able to satisfy the demands of guaranteeing the basic rights of our citizenry.
The alienation of the majority of the population from decision-making which affects their very lives and the future of the nation-building project has deepened as the attempts to concentrate even more power at the top as in the recent Constitutional amendment process in 2009-10 signalled.
In 1970, the cry was for ‘power to the people’, yet at 50, decision-making is within a circle of leadership in a governance construct that has not moved far from the fundamentals of the Crown Colony governorship, with claims of right of rulership and privileges of the governing over the governed.
At 50, amid apparent material abundance (defined by things), attention must be paid to the appeal of the President for all to pay attention to “areas of brokenness that we can fix and must fix, if we are to proceed with dignity and vigour, in unity, over the next 50 years”.
The tasks of nation-building and project Independence demand no less.
 
In part 6, we shall examine our Present and Future and the requirements of realising the aspirations of the 31st of August 1962.
 
 Clyde A Weatherhead
A Citizen Fighting for
Democratic Renewal of
Our Society
26 August 2018

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