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On the PM’s Address to the Nation:
Hydrocarbon Monocrop The Prime Minister addressed the nation tonight on 2 issues concerning the hydrocarbon sector on which our country remains dependent for the majority of its GDP, Government Revenue and Foreign Exchange earnings. Natural Gas from Venezuela The first was the signing of an agreement among NGC, Shell and PDVSA to facilitate TT access to natural gas from the Venezuelan Dragon field. The only projections of inflows from this source is 2019 at the earliest. The PM described the benefit of this supply source as:
These two developments are two aspects of a single problem – the decision by the multinational gas producers (up-streamers) not to engage in new exploration and drilling until new concessions were granted by Government. The PM boasted that his administration negotiated a new gas price with the gas barons which unleashed ‘an exploration and production frenzy’. He also hailed negotiation of gas supply contracts with the down-streamers at Pt. Lisas. What the PM conveniently forgot to mention was that these matters were completely neglected by the previous PNM administration of which he was apart up to 2010. He suggested that the new gas production miraculously flowed within a few months, conveniently also forgetting to mention the arrangements finalised in 2013 between the PP administration and the up-streamers, about which his government has continuously complained. No new exploration or production ‘bears fruit’ in a matter of months. But, the PM is eager to claim another “PNM success”. Petrotrin Restructuring On to Petrotrin, the liabilities of which “threaten the credit-rating and financial stability of the country as a whole”, the PM began. This is the language used by the same PNM administration in 2009 in speaking of CLICO and the possibility of its collapse. These cost of ‘bailing out’ Petrotrin, the PM suggested is about $25B which the country ‘cannot afford at this time’. However, in the midst of a global financial crisis, the Cabinet found it possible to bail out CLICO to the tune of $19B which mushroomed to more than $25B at the time of the start of the recession in 2015. This PM blamed the current recession on the sharp fall in oil prices in 2014. Now, he blames the threat to ‘financial stability’ on Petrotrin, its massive debt and loss-making. Describing the refinery as a ‘money loser’, the PM berated ‘gross mismanagement of the national patrimony’ by Petrotrin. He then pointed to ‘every project within the past few decades’ as ‘subject of massive cost overruns and lengthy delays’. The projects he listed were the projects of the Refinery Upgrade undertaken by a Board appointed by and projects approved by the Cabinet between 2003 and 2009, of which this PM was a senior member. After listing the massive debt incurred by these projects and otherwise guaranteed by that same Cabinet and this one, the PM bemoaned “what is worse no one nor any entity has been held accountable for this expensive travesty” referring to just one of these disastrous projects. Conveniently, the PM again forgot that cases against the Board members responsible for ‘this expensive travesty’ were discontinued by his Cabinet as one of its first acts on taking office in 2015. The PM went on to blame Petrotrin for the inability of his government to provide health and social services to the people of the country, even though government will not supply a cent of the $25B cash he says it will take to help sort out Petrotrin’s disastrous state. Again, announcing that refining will be closed down in an effort to move Petrotrin from money-losing to a state of profitability as an oil producer and exporter with increases in exploration and production with a workforce reduced by 900 in that very business unit alone. The PM promised a ‘soft landing’ to the workers who will lose their jobs, the contractors and service companies who will lose business and the communities which will be negatively affected. Generous severance packages, new work related to the oil production expansion and infrastructure projects for the affected communities were the respective promises. The refinery will be up for sale. Though the PM did not put it so bluntly while he ‘offered’ the OWTU ‘first preference’ as buyer. This ‘offer’ was immediately rejected by the OWTU PG speaking on another station. Conveniently, again, the PM forgot that the GTL plant has already been sold to Niquan-AL. This talk of ‘soft-landing’ has been a pet slang for regimes since the 1990’s. It was first used in the closure of the IDC-TDA and PUC. It has been used in the many VSEP episodes at WASA and other state agencies. It was promised to the BWIA workers when the airline ‘seamlessly transitioned’ into CAL where they are no longer employed and all, except the pilots, are without union representation. Details Still Needed There are many detailed economic analyses not mentioned by the PM in his 52-minute address:
For the OWTU which is touting its ‘alternative’ restructuring plan, it, too, must provide the citizens (shareholders of Petrotrin) with details of the economic costs and forecasts of its plan. To borrow the PM’s words, for the sake of transparency and accountability to the shareholders (we, the people) there is much more information that must be provided so the citizens can make their own analysis and draw their own conclusions on the closure of the refining business after 104 years. The people must also be told, apart from replacing current use and with depleting reserves of both oil and gas in mind, what is the government’s plan for replacing this hydrocarbon monocrop for the expansion and sustainability of the nation’s economy down the road. Clyde Weatherhead A Citizen Demanding Accountability and a Sustainable Economy. 2 September 2018 TEXT OF PM's ADDRESS TO THE NATION - 2 Sept. 2018  Project Independence – After 56 Years:
Present and Future As August 31st approaches, TT experienced a ‘wake up’ call on the 10th day before the anniversary of the launch of project Independence – the most powerful earthquake in living memory reminded us (if only temporarily) of the vulnerability of our existence and fragility of our ‘material abundance’. Already challenged by another devastating episode of economic collapse, having experienced the drama of a tortuous and incredulous selection process for a top cop created by Parliamentary unanimity, cringing at each murderous act of barbarity attempting to qualify as more horrendous than the last, we approach the end of the 56th year since ‘our nation is born, leh meh tell yuh’. Our Present We are now 6 years beyond the golden jubilee of project Independence. Since the 50th anniversary, some important developments have occurred:
Already, the radio ads encourage us to ‘love 56’ and one tv ad depicts the physical infrastructure and legacy projects, ‘nation-building’ songs are added to radio playlists all in attempt to generate some enthusiasm for “happy Independence”. What we need to ask is: What is the state of our nation-building project? The Nation-building Project The words of the first Prime Minister in a message ahead of the first Independence Day reminds us that the nation-building project is what we are fundamentally engaged in: "On August 31, 1962, a country will be free, a miniature state will be established, but a society and a nation will not have been formed. After August 31, 1962, the people of Trinidad and Tobago will face the fiercest test in their history - whether they can invest with flesh and blood the bare skeleton of their National Anthem, 'Here, every creed and race find an equal place.' – Dr. Eric Williams, History of the People of Trinidad and Tobago, page 282. Perhaps, we may derive some assistance from these words of the current Project Manager (PM): “But we still have much work to do. As a nation, we have not yet realized the full measure of our promise.” – Dr Keith Rowley, Speech at Dr. Eric Williams – 34 Years Later, 2015 And what is the ‘measure’ of our progress? Do we focus on how many Heads of Government we have had, as Nigeria did at the end of its 56th year, 2 years ago, under its 13th President, and its journey described as a ‘tortuous road to nationhood’? Do we tally GDP figures or other economic indicators and ignore the current state of our economy or what has led to a decision to close our oil refinery after 104 years? Or without rethinking the fundamentals of an approach to economic development continued since the 1940’s? Do we count infrastructural projects, buildings, roads, bridges, ‘legacy’ structures while ignoring the fact that after 56 years it could be admitted after a potentially dangerous earthquake that we do not yet have an enforceable building code? Do we count the number of vehicles on our roads while ignoring the absence of a reliable and efficient mass transit system since the abandonment of our railway and the rise and fall of the motor car assembly industry? Do we evaluate our progress based on ‘material abundance’ based on the abundance of goods produced and available for consumption by various groups of society we label ‘income groups’? We have been encouraged to use these measures from the standpoint of objects and the products of the consumption industry. We promote the notion of consumption without even paying attention to how many people are employed in the production of basic things that we need - like food, clothing, housing as against how many are engaged in producing consumer items. We even ignore how many are unemployed or being put out of employment and unable to have the means to obtain the necessities. There is another view of ‘material abundance’ which focuses on people, rather than objects. This definition focuses on development of human resources and the encouragement of human initiative and human energy for the building of the nation. In 1962, with the advent of Independence, motivated by the expectation of control of our society and development, scores of people in Pegasus and other organisations, their human initiative released embarked on the nation-building project. There was such enthusiasm to contribute. The irony was that the first PM and his government, strangled that initiative and energy since the people had no resources or control to be able to fully implement the projects they had developed. The ’material abundance’ as objects and consumption replaced that as human development. Without rebuilding real hope in the future as happened with the arrival of ‘self-determination’ in 1962, the ‘full measure of our promise’ will never be realized. Conflicting Interests It is interesting that on this eve of the 56th anniversary one trade union is trying to convince Government to allow one set or businessmen to get control of the steel mill from which the workers were thrown out of jobs when the previous owners closed it down because they were not making enough profit. The union is convinced that new owners will ensure their jobs. But, their own recent experience shows that the employer and the employees each have interests of their own; the owner in maximum profit and the worker in keeping his job. There are conflicting interests even when there may be seemingly common interests. The owner and the worker may seem to have a common interest in keeping the factory open, but each has their own interest. Similarly, the banker and borrower also do not have the same interests. Likewise, all politicians have one thing in common – they all want power. But, those in Government want to stay in power, while the Opposition have their own plans to come to power. They all promise they will solve the problems and the people should either put them or keep them in power to do so. The people’s experience shows them that there is a conflict between what they want and what the politicians want. There is even a conflict between what the politicians say and what they do. So, each set of politicians promises to solve crime, to end corruption, to unite the people. They all promise ‘change’. But, after 56 years, the society is polarized because of party support and every effort to keep the people apart using race or religion is being made. Crime is rampant, corruption is denying the society of vital resources and is unpunished, the economy is in crisis, institutions are in a mess and degeneration and decay is destroying the very social order. Even the problem, the ‘area of brokenness’ – the relationship between Tobago and Trinidad remains unsolved. There is before the Parliament a Bill for self-government for Tobago, proposed by a political party which opposed the idea when it was raised by Robinson and Murray in 1977, and which is not satisfactory to the people of Tobago. The Future In four years, we will be marking the Diamond Jubilee, 60 years of Independence and the nation-building project, what will our assessment be then? We cannot, at that or any other time in the future merely continue with hopes, sentiments and expectations. Nor can we continue with “constitutional reform, …. that is in stasis” as President Richards told us at the 50th anniversary, or an economy that is not diversified as promised by Dr Williams on Independence Day 1974. We cannot continue with promises unfulfilled and a society under anti-social pressure and a nation…still not formed as we were urged even before August 31st, 1962. The people must once again take charge of the nation-building project and project Independence and unleash their human energy with a plan and action if the nation envisaged in 1962 and named by the people in 1970 is to be realized – Trinbago. Clyde A Weatherhead A Citizen Fighting for Democratic Renewal of Our Society 28 August 2018  At the Golden Jubilee
The decade of the 90’s was one of ‘recovery’ in many ways. It opened with the signing of a structural adjustment loan with the World Bank, probably the last major act of the NAR government. The NAR departed the political scene and the PNM and UNC took turns in office. Even our Olympic experience in that decade was less than scintillating. Nineteen athletes journeyed to 2 Olympiads and the medal return was 2 bronze medals, both won by a single athlete, Ato Boldon. The currency had a ‘fixed’ float and exchange controls were removed as the full liberalization package was implemented, mostly for the benefit of local manufacturers in the export trade. Electricity generation was divested and after a couple bouts of voluntary separation, Severn Trent was brought into WASA. Privatisation was on the way. Structural adjustment continued to have negative social effects. Unemployment remained between 20 and 10%. Public sector workers persisted in their fight to recover the $2+B debt owed by the state, created by the pay, increment and COLA cuts in the late 80’s. One Minister claimed that the ‘structure’ of the economy changed as the energy industry switched from oil to gas, hydrocarbon all the same. The economy was still described as ‘energy-based’ as hydrocarbons still accounted for 87% of exports, 48% of government revenue and 43% of GDP, while providing only 4% of all employment. Gas plants were littering the landscape at Point Lisas and Point Fortin in a caravan of ‘trains’. Once again, the multinationals claimed the lion’s share and markets on the Eastern seaboard of the US were the primary destination. Not long after the end of the decade, there were 9 ammonia plants in operation. After the windfalls in 1972-73, and in 1980-81 - boosted by the misfortune of others (the Iran-Iraq war), oil prices steadily declined in the 90’s to a low of $10 per barrel in 1998. Oil production steadily dropped from a peak of 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 1978 to about half of that just after the turn of the century. Gas production rose sharply and flattened at 4.1B cubic feet per day in the first 7 years of the next decade. Into the 21st Century As the new millennium began, the recovery from the 80’s recession was coming to a close. The government touted TT as a success story of structural adjustment. GDP was improving mostly because of the gas ‘bubble’. While the economy was showing positive signs, in the area of governance a new crisis emerged. The stain of withdrawal from international Human Rights bodies to facilitate hangings in 1999 continued to taint the nation’s reputation internationally. The UNC retained office in the December 11, 2000 General Elections, but questions about the fairness of the elections persisted. Within one year the UNC was split and the administration collapsed in office amid corruption allegations. Elections were called again in December 2001 and for the first time in the electoral history since 1956, there was a tie - 18-18. President Robinson using euphemisms about “streams into rivers”, appointed PNM Leader, Manning, as PM based on ‘moral and spiritual values’, rather than Constitutional convention. For 10 days or so, the country was run by its civil servants. For the third time in 2 years, Elections were called on October 7, 2002. The PNM won 20 of the 36 seats. There was a series of issues including the adoption of the CCJ as final Court of Appeal on which the politicians flip flopped as Parliament continued to be tied up in squabbles and corruption charges aimed at both sides of the aisle. In 2003, crime, which had been escalating since the mid-90’s, exploded with a rash of over 150 kidnappings and the murder toll reached 166. Panday was on 3 charges for integrity violations of non-disclosure of a London bank account. In mid-year, utilising a 1995 loan agreement with the IADB, negotiated in a period spanning PNM and UNC governments, Caroni Ltd was closed down putting 8000 sugar workers out of work. Later in the year, PM Manning announced a major Cabinet reshuffle in which 15 Ministers and junior Ministers were affected. The political unease continued and in 2005, the number of seats in the Lower House was increased to 41 to try and avoid recurrence of an electoral tie. The crime scourge grabbed further attention when 13 people were injured in a bomb explosion on Frederick Street. 10,000 people joined a ‘Death March’ protest against the failure of government to deal with the escalating violent crime situation. In 2007, General Elections were called in November. The PNM, UNC and COP contested, and the PNM won 26 seats, 2 short of the special majority, that Manning was looking for. After drafting a Constitution to further concentrate power in the hands of a President and limit checks and balances on such maximum power, government also introduced an unpopular new Property Tax in 2009 while allegations of corruption connected with the construction projects managed by UDECOTT continued unabated. Many warned that mega-project construction drive might ‘overheat’ the economy. For the second time, in 2010 PM Manning called early elections and a coalition of opposition forces, the People’s Partnership was formed. The PP defeated the PNM, 29 seats to 12, and the first female Prime Minister Kamla Persad Bissessar headed the new government. A THIRD ‘Oil’ Windfall? In the first 7 years of the new millennium, natural gas production increased at an average compounded rate of about 13% per year. Natural gas prices rose at an average compounded rate of 17% and methanol and ammonia prices 11 and 13% per year, respectively. Oil prices, too, dramatically rose from $28.1US to $94.1 per barrel between 2003-2008. Crude oil production rose to a maximum of close to 55,000 bpd in 2006-7. Natural gas production rose steadily until about 2010. Real GDP increased steadily because of the energy (‘oil’) sector situation up to 2010, the new ‘windfall’ cushioning the effect of the global financial crisis. The economy was booming as we approached the golden jubilee of project Independence in 2012. While the situation was buoyant and government spending on the increase, the gas ‘bubble’ was in danger of bursting as gas production was heading for decline in the absence of new arrangements to encourage new drilling. The daily body count escalated as the murderous spread of violent crime remain largely unchecked. The annual toll peaked at 550 in 2008, 509 in 2009 and 485 in 2010 and by 2012 had returned to the same level as in 2005. 3,858 citizens had been slaughtered since 2000. There seemed to be no solution, as detection and conviction rates reached abysmal levels. The violence was being fueled by the drug and gun trade and attendant gang violence and turf wars. Crimes against women and children were also on the increase. It appeared as if a new level social decay was gnawing away at the very fabric of the society and undermining the nation-building project. The 50th anniversary of Independence was being marked with pomp and ceremony reminiscent of the euphoria of 1962. The lavish bunting the waterfront (itself a product of the third energy windfall) and around the capital, the re-enactment of the replacement of the Union Jack by the Red, White and Black in the first minutes of the 31st – these were reminders of hope and expectation that had dissipated in the course of 5 decades. Government publications in tribute to a “Terrific and Tranquil” nation and hailing its “Icons”, the sponsoring of a commemorative CD and other events sought to convince an uneasy and anxious population that all was well with project Independence. It was as if a government led by ‘the other’ party was trying perhaps too hard to convince that nation-building was on track even while, the 5th deficit budget amid growing GDP was in place and safety and security were becoming endangered. In the midst of the celebratory atmosphere, President Richards delivered a sobering message at the re-enactment ceremony. T&T Not a Nation of Sheep was the title of his speech in which he said: “Tonight's event generates excitement, as it should. The occasion is as solemn, as it is pulsating. But euphoria must not be allowed to cloud sober reflection, as reality will not go away. We need to ask ourselves whether we are living up to the expectations of our freedom fighters, who did battle, not with guns, but with intellectual prowess, artisan skills, artistic brilliance, sport and diplomatic savoir faire to secure our place among the family of independent Nations.” “We speak of constitutional reform, for example, but that is in stasis. “We made a promise to Tobago, a long time ago and, as Eric Williams said in Parliament with the joining of our two islands, administratively, one form of neglect was exchanged for another. This is one of the major areas of brokenness that we can fix and must fix, if we are to proceed with dignity and vigour, in unity, over the next 50 years. Unity in diversity is only one, though very important, aspect of our national character.”. The President appealed for focus on the need to bring our supreme law, the Constitution, which was created in an atmosphere of tension fostered by the threat of harmful disunity, to make it capable of fulfilling the promise of nationhood and meet the needs of the time. He pointed to ‘areas of brokenness’ - the unresolved issue of the relationship between Tobago and Trinidad in a nation in which we proclaim, ‘side by side, we stand’ and ‘every creed and race find an equal place’ in our national anthem which hailed our land’s ‘great dawning’. Without resolving the relationship between our two islands and without ensuring the progress of the entire nation based on the unity of all of its people, nation-building and project Independence remain aspiration rather than reality. After 50 years, our economy is still dependent on a single commodity, much as it was on sugar at the time of its birth. Foreign investors and business interests still predominate in that critical sector and otherwise. In 1962, we were assured ‘Massa day done’, yet at 50, we are not fully in control of our economic fortunes and able to satisfy the demands of guaranteeing the basic rights of our citizenry. The alienation of the majority of the population from decision-making which affects their very lives and the future of the nation-building project has deepened as the attempts to concentrate even more power at the top as in the recent Constitutional amendment process in 2009-10 signalled. In 1970, the cry was for ‘power to the people’, yet at 50, decision-making is within a circle of leadership in a governance construct that has not moved far from the fundamentals of the Crown Colony governorship, with claims of right of rulership and privileges of the governing over the governed. At 50, amid apparent material abundance (defined by things), attention must be paid to the appeal of the President for all to pay attention to “areas of brokenness that we can fix and must fix, if we are to proceed with dignity and vigour, in unity, over the next 50 years”. The tasks of nation-building and project Independence demand no less. In part 6, we shall examine our Present and Future and the requirements of realising the aspirations of the 31st of August 1962. Clyde A Weatherhead A Citizen Fighting for Democratic Renewal of Our Society 26 August 2018 |
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